Tourism Revenue And Economic Growth In Uzbekistan: An Empirical Ols And Var Analysis (2010–2023)
Keywords:
tourism revenue, economic growth, OLS regression, VAR model, tourism-led growth, CPI inflationAbstract
This study investigates the relationship between tourism revenue and economic growth in Uzbekistan over the period 2010–2023 using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression and a bivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The OLS model incorporates tourism receipts, the hotels and restaurants sector share of GDP, CPI inflation, and a COVID-19 structural-break dummy as explanatory variables. The estimated model demonstrates strong explanatory power and satisfactory predictive accuracy, with the COVID-19 shock identified as the dominant structural disruption of the sample period. CPI inflation exerts a significant negative effect on growth, while tourism sector expansion shows a positive contribution. The VAR analysis reveals a statistically significant unidirectional Granger causal relationship running from tourism revenue to GDP growth, but not in the reverse direction, suggesting that the tourism-led growth hypothesis holds for Uzbekistan at the macroeconomic level. The findings offer evidence-based policy guidance for the ongoing development of Uzbekistan’s tourism sector within the New Uzbekistan 2030 agenda.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Raximova Umida Ziyodullayevna, Parmonov Farid Qayumovich, Boymurodov Javohir Sirojiddin ugli
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