Inflation and Wage Dynamics in Uzbekistan: An Empirical Multiple Regression Analysis (2010–2024)
Keywords:
inflation, wages, CPI, multiple regression, OLS, GDP, exchange rate, Uzbekistan, econometrics, wage indexationAbstract
This study examines the quantitative relationship between inflation and nominal wages in Uzbekistan over the period 2010–2024, using a three-factor Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression framework. The dependent variable is the average monthly nominal wage (thousand UZS), and the three independent variables are the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate (X₁), nominal Gross Domestic Product (X₂, billion UZS), and the official USD/UZS annual average exchange rate (X₃). Data are sourced from the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. The estimated model achieves an exceptionally high goodness of fit (R² = 0.9996), the F-criterion confirms overall significance (F = 9,363.44 >> Fₘᵉⁿ = 3.587), and the mean approximation error stands at 1.90% — well below the 10% acceptability threshold. The CPI inflation rate coefficient is positive and borderline significant (t = 2.122 ≈ tₘᵉⁿ = 2.201), confirming a wage-inflation indexation mechanism, while GDP exerts a dominant and highly significant effect on wage growth. The findings offer evidence-based insights for wage and monetary policy design in Uzbekistan.
References
[1] E.S. Phelps, “Phillips curves, expectations of inflation, and optimal unemployment over time,” Economica, vol. 34, no. 135, pp. 254–281, 1967.
[2] M. Friedman, “The role of monetary policy,” American Economic Review, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 1–17, 1968.
[3] I. Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money. New York: Macmillan, 1911.
[4] J.M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan, 1936.
[5] C. Shapiro and J.E. Stiglitz, “Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device,” American Economic Review, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 433–444, 1984.
[6] A.J. Oswald, “Efficient contracts are on the labour demand curve: Theory and facts,” Labour Economics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 85–113, 1993.
[7] B.Yu. Khodiyev, T.Sh. Shodiyev, and B.B. Berkinov, Ekonometrika: o‘quv qo‘llanma. Tashkent: IQTISODIYOT, 2018.
[8] I. Habibullayev and B. Utanov, Ekonometrika asoslari: o‘quv qo‘llanma. Tashkent: IQTISOD-MOLIYA, 2018.
[9] International Monetary Fund, Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation. IMF Country Report No. 22/278. Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2022.
[10] R.M. Solow, “A contribution to the theory of economic growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 65–94, 1956.
[11] D.N. Gujarati and D.C. Porter, Basic Econometrics, 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2009.
[12] C. Dougherty, Introduction to Econometrics, 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.
[13] State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Average Monthly Nominal Wages, 2010–2024. Retrieved from https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/labor-market-2
[14] Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Consumer Price Index (CPI), 2010–2024. Retrieved from https://cbu.uz/en/monetary-policy/inflation/
[15] State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Gross Domestic Product, 2010–2024. Retrieved from https://stat.uz/img/makrokorsatkichlar-uz_ru_en.pdf
[16] Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Official USD/UZS Exchange Rate Archive, 2010–2024. Retrieved from https://cbu.uz/en/arkhiv-kursov-valyut/
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Raximova Umida Ziyodullayevna, Abdullayev Ziyovuddin Abduazim ugli, Uzoqov Ozodbek Farhod ugli
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
