Quantifying the Co-evolution Dynamics of Urban and Road Systems in Al-Sulaymaniyah City, Iraq: A GIS-Based Integration of Random Forest and Road Network Analysis
Keywords:
Co-evolution Analysis, Random Forest Classification, Road Network Analysis, Urban Expansion, GISAbstract
This study examines the temporal changes in Al-Sulaymaniyah City, Iraq, through the integration of Random Forest land cover classification and road network analysis from 1994 to 2024. A seven-class land cover classification system was developed using Landsat images from various time periods, achieving an overall accuracy of 93% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.90. Urban areas expanded significantly, increasing from 132.34 km² (0.78%) in 1994 to 628.27 km² (3.69%) in 2024. This is a 375% increase, with an annual growth rate of 25.47% from 1994 to 2004. Cropland underwent significant fluctuations, decreasing from 2,119.80 km² in 2004 to 636.43 km² by 2004, before increasing to 3,257.10 km² by 2024. The density of roads per square kilometer increased from 15.035 to 17.231. A co-evolutionary study demonstrated that urban-network interactions exhibited complex relationships with a moderate explanatory power (R² = 0.49). Significant positive Pearson correlations were seen between the length of roadways in metropolitan regions (r = 0.701, p < 0.001) and the density of networks (r = 0.723, p < 0.001). Granger causality studies, however, revealed no substantial evidence that urban growth induces road extension (p = 0.5), indicating that the two are evolving independently. The urban trend model demonstrated strong predictive capability (R² = 0.87), whereas the network development model exhibited only moderate predictive capability (R² = 0.58). The results indicate that rapid urbanization has surpassed infrastructure development, complicating long-term planning for rapidly expanding communities.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Nyan Qasim Khudhur, Dler A. Al-Mamany, Baraa Raad Mohammed
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